Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 22 May 2022
Aslan Karatsev v Camilo Ugo Carabelli
153–159 in points · Camilo Ugo Carabelli won
Why it went the way it did
Camilo Ugo Carabelli won 0.2 more points than Aslan Karatsev relative to what the serve alone predicted. Aslan Karatsev's biggest leaks: forehand execution −9.8, net execution −3.8, backhand shot selection −3.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Aslan Karatsev | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | −0.3 | −2.5 | −2.9 | −1.0 | −0.4 | −1.6 | −3.0 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.4 | −2.5 | −0.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.4 |
| Return | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −1.8 | +1.9 | +0.2 |
| Forehand | +1.4 | +7.7 | −9.8 | −0.7 | −1.2 | +4.9 | +5.4 | +9.0 |
| Backhand | +1.3 | −3.5 | +0.8 | −1.3 | −0.3 | −0.8 | +0.8 | −0.3 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.0 | −0.8 | −1.9 | −0.6 | −12.7 | −1.0 | −14.3 |
| Net | +0.6 | +1.6 | −3.8 | −1.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.6 | −1.6 | +0.5 | −2.6 | −0.6 | −2.8 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −1.3 | −2.1 |
| All shots | +3.2 | +3.9 | −20.3 | −13.2 | −2.8 | −14.2 | +4.1 | −12.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Aslan Karatsev | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Net, Aslan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.2 | −1.6 | −4.6 | |
| 2 | −1.8 | −5.6 | +3.8 | |
| 3 | −2.3 | +0.6 | −3.0 | |
| 4 | +1.8 | −2.8 | +4.6 | |
| 5 | −4.5 | −3.5 | −1.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Aslan Karatsev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% 53% | 13% 75% | 30% 56% |
| 2 | 64% 72% | 18% 80% | 18% 80% |
| 3 | 74% 41% | 4% 100% | 22% 20% |
| 4 | 64% 57% | 23% 60% | 14% 33% |
| 5 | 60% 58% | 14% 33% | 26% 55% |
Set to set +0.13 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.65 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Camilo Ugo Carabelli serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 83% | 19% 75% | 52% 73% |
| 2 | 12% 33% | 27% 57% | 62% 69% |
| 3 | 25% 56% | 22% 50% | 53% 58% |
| 4 | 26% 38% | 23% 57% | 52% 38% |
| 5 | 24% 83% | 39% 60% | 37% 37% |
Set to set −0.26 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Aslan Karatsev
12.9 points left on the table across 696 shots 1.85 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×10; FH inside-in rates higher · 1.96 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH down the line ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.13 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×14; BH down the line rates higher · 0.47 pts
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
16.9 points left on the table across 666 shots 2.54 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×29; BH crosscourt rates higher · 1.12 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×14; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.03 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×9; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.53 pts