Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 22 May 2022
Botic Van De Zandschulp v Pavel Kotov
114–91 in points · Botic Van De Zandschulp won
Why it went the way it did
Botic Van De Zandschulp won 13.0 more points than Pavel Kotov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Pavel Kotov's biggest leaks: return execution −2.6, serve 1st execution −2.3, touch execution −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Botic Van De Zandschulp | Pavel Kotov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −2.3 | −2.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −2.6 | −2.6 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +5.0 | +5.9 | +11.5 | +0.2 | +3.1 | −0.8 | +2.6 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +0.5 | −1.2 | −0.6 | −1.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −4.4 | −0.2 | −4.6 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −1.0 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.2 | −1.3 | −0.5 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.8 | −0.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −1.8 | −2.2 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.9 | +0.4 | +4.7 | +6.1 | +0.9 | +0.5 | −8.3 | −6.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Botic Van De Zandschulp | Pavel Kotov | Net, Botic | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.8 | +1.2 | +3.5 | |
| 2 | −3.0 | −2.2 | −0.8 | |
| 3 | +2.7 | −1.9 | +4.6 | |
| 4 | +1.6 | −4.0 | +5.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Botic Van De Zandschulp serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 80% | 8% 0% | 54% 71% |
| 2 | 43% 56% | 10% 100% | 48% 50% |
| 3 | 54% 71% | – | 46% 67% |
| 4 | 36% 78% | 12% 100% | 52% 69% |
Set to set +0.01 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.04 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Pavel Kotov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73% 56% | 5% 100% | 23% 40% |
| 2 | 61% 74% | 13% 50% | 26% 38% |
| 3 | 67% 56% | 4% 0% | 30% 50% |
| 4 | 64% 56% | 16% 75% | 20% 40% |
Set to set −0.51 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.43 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Botic Van De Zandschulp
10.5 points left on the table across 436 shots 2.42 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.55 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.50 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
Pavel Kotov
10.7 points left on the table across 429 shots 2.48 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×6; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.98 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.59 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.37 pts