Buenos Aires CH · R32 · Clay · 21 Jun 2022
Malek Jaziri v Roman Andres Burruchaga
83–89 in points · Malek Jaziri won
Why it went the way it did
Roman Andres Burruchaga won 3.6 more points than Malek Jaziri relative to what the serve alone predicted. Malek Jaziri's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −6.3, serve 1st execution −2.1, forehand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Malek Jaziri | Roman Andres Burruchaga | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −1.9 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.8 | +1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| Return | +0.4 | −1.3 | −2.0 | −2.9 | +0.5 | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.8 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +3.1 | −2.1 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | +2.5 | −3.9 | −1.4 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +0.5 | −1.0 | −2.2 | −2.6 |
| Slice | +1.1 | −6.3 | −0.9 | −6.1 | +0.1 | −2.2 | −0.2 | −2.4 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −1.9 | −1.8 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +1.8 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.9 |
| All shots | +1.9 | −5.3 | −6.1 | −9.5 | +0.9 | −0.9 | −5.9 | −5.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Malek Jaziri | Roman Andres Burruchaga | Net, Malek | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.8 | −2.8 | +2.0 | |
| 2 | −8.5 | −0.9 | −7.5 | |
| 3 | −0.2 | −2.1 | +1.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Malek Jaziri serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 69% | 4% 0% | 37% 70% |
| 2 | 40% 33% | – | 60% 11% |
| 3 | 48% 76% | 9% 0% | 43% 63% |
Set to set −2.73 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.97 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Roman Andres Burruchaga serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 64% | 30% 50% | 30% 63% |
| 2 | 37% 57% | 11% 100% | 53% 70% |
| 3 | 44% 59% | 31% 58% | 26% 60% |
Set to set +1.75 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.14 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Malek Jaziri
6.8 points left on the table across 309 shots 2.19 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
Roman Andres Burruchaga
6.3 points left on the table across 299 shots 2.10 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×10; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.26 pts