Wimbledon · R128 · Grass · 27 Jun 2022
Kaja Juvan v Beatriz Haddad Maia
87–84 in points · Kaja Juvan won
Why it went the way it did
Kaja Juvan won 2.7 more points than Beatriz Haddad Maia relative to what the serve alone predicted. Beatriz Haddad Maia's biggest leaks: return execution −5.7, backhand execution −2.7, net execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kaja Juvan | Beatriz Haddad Maia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.2 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Return | +0.6 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.9 | −5.7 | −5.0 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.6 | −1.8 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.8 | +2.8 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.7 | −2.1 | −1.7 | −0.1 | +0.7 | −2.7 | −2.2 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.6 | +1.3 | −1.3 | −0.3 | −0.9 | −1.0 | −2.2 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.6 | −1.3 | −0.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −2.4 | +0.7 | −1.5 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.7 | −2.9 | −3.5 | −5.8 | −0.7 | +2.1 | −9.8 | −8.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Kaja Juvan | Beatriz Haddad Maia | Net, Kaja | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.3 | −3.6 | +3.9 | |
| 2 | −6.0 | −1.8 | −4.2 | |
| 3 | −0.1 | −3.1 | +3.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kaja Juvan serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 78% | 19% 80% | 48% 69% |
| 2 | 37% 70% | 15% 50% | 48% 62% |
| 3 | 32% 75% | 24% 67% | 44% 64% |
Set to set +0.07 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Beatriz Haddad Maia serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 60% | 43% 63% | 30% 55% |
| 2 | 27% 88% | 47% 71% | 27% 75% |
| 3 | 32% 63% | 32% 50% | 36% 56% |
Set to set +1.35 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.74 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kaja Juvan
6.6 points left on the table across 258 shots 2.54 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH down the line rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Beatriz Haddad Maia
8.1 points left on the table across 259 shots 3.14 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts