Wimbledon · R16 · Grass · 3 Jul 2022
Jelena Ostapenko v Tatjana Maria
102–115 in points · Tatjana Maria won
Why it went the way it did
Tatjana Maria won 8.9 more points than Jelena Ostapenko relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jelena Ostapenko's biggest leaks: return execution −6.5, forehand execution −5.6, backhand execution −2.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jelena Ostapenko | Tatjana Maria | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.0 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +1.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.2 | −6.5 | −6.1 | +0.5 | −6.0 | +4.0 | −1.6 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +1.2 | −5.6 | −3.8 | +0.3 | +1.6 | −0.7 | +1.3 |
| Backhand | +0.7 | −0.5 | −2.5 | −2.3 | −0.2 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +0.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −0.5 | −10.4 | +4.4 | −6.5 |
| Net | +0.3 | +2.4 | −2.0 | +0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.4 | −1.6 | −1.9 | +0.3 | −2.0 | +0.8 | −1.0 |
| All shots | +2.2 | +2.4 | −19.2 | −14.5 | +0.8 | −16.4 | +9.9 | −5.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Jelena Ostapenko | Tatjana Maria | Net, Jelena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.2 | −6.2 | +2.0 | |
| 2 | −5.3 | +0.4 | −5.7 | |
| 3 | −5.0 | +0.2 | −5.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jelena Ostapenko serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 50% | 9% 67% | 51% 72% |
| 2 | 26% 60% | 21% 38% | 54% 62% |
| 3 | 33% 56% | 15% 43% | 52% 48% |
Set to set +0.45 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tatjana Maria serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% 75% | 20% 57% | 57% 50% |
| 2 | 42% 77% | 6% 100% | 52% 69% |
| 3 | 52% 60% | 3% 100% | 45% 62% |
Set to set +0.15 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.51 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jelena Ostapenko
6.4 points left on the table across 288 shots 2.23 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×4; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley inside-in rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Tatjana Maria
8.2 points left on the table across 260 shots 3.14 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×6; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×9; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×10; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×8; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.48 pts