RallyIQ

Wimbledon · R16 · Grass · 4 Jul 2022

Cristian Garin v Alex De Minaur

180–184 in points · Cristian Garin won

Why it went the way it did

Cristian Garin won 0.3 more points than Alex De Minaur relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alex De Minaur's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −6.5, slice shot selection −6.0, touch shot selection −2.1.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotCristian GarinAlex De Minaur
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st −0.9 −0.3 −3.5 −4.7 −1.4 −0.4 −6.5 −8.3
Serve 2nd +0.2 −0.1 −2.7 −2.6 +0.5 −0.1 −0.9 −0.6
Return +0.8 +1.7 −0.7 +1.8 +0.4 +1.4 +9.0 +10.9
Forehand +0.6 +7.4 +11.2 +19.3 +0.2 +5.2 +6.7 +12.2
Backhand +1.3 +2.2 −1.1 +2.4 −1.6 +3.1 +3.6 +5.2
Slice +0.3 −4.4 −0.1 −4.1 +0.2 −6.0 +3.1 −2.7
Net +0.6 +1.0 +1.2 +2.9 −0.2 ±0.0 +0.3 +0.1
Touch −0.2 −0.7 +1.2 +0.3 −0.1 −2.1 +0.7 −1.6
All shots +2.8+7.0 +5.6+15.4 −2.0+1.1 +16.0+15.1

Set by set

SetCristian GarinAlex De MinaurNet, Cristian
1−2.5+2.2 −4.7
2+4.8+6.5 −1.7
3+8.1+6.1 +2.0
4+0.8−3.8 +4.6
5+4.2+4.2 ±0.0

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Cristian Garin serving

SetWideBodyT
1 44% 58% 22% 83% 33% 22%
2 58% 53% 21% 43% 21% 57%
3 58% 64% 14% 50% 28% 75%
4 38% 50% 23% 67% 38% 80%
5 54% 56% 11% 60% 35% 69%

Set to set +0.26 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Alex De Minaur serving

SetWideBodyT
1 34% 70% 24% 57% 41% 75%
2 50% 63% 24% 67% 26% 40%
3 43% 65% 20% 67% 37% 53%
4 39% 64% 31% 27% 31% 64%
5 43% 71% 18% 57% 40% 50%

Set to set −0.33 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.75 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Cristian Garin

17.0 points left on the table across 887 shots 1.92 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×23; FH crosscourt rates higher · 1.17 pts
  2. Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
  3. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
  4. Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts

Alex De Minaur

21.0 points left on the table across 858 shots 2.44 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×33; BH crosscourt rates higher · 1.28 pts
  2. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×16; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.81 pts
  3. Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×14; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.77 pts
  4. Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×17; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.71 pts