Hamburg · F · Clay · 23 Jul 2022
Anett Kontaveit v Bernarda Pera
45–59 in points · Bernarda Pera won
Why it went the way it did
Bernarda Pera won 6.6 more points than Anett Kontaveit relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anett Kontaveit's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.3, slice shot selection −2.0, forehand execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Anett Kontaveit | Bernarda Pera | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.4 | +1.5 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.5 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +1.4 | −1.2 | +1.0 | +0.3 | +1.2 | +0.6 | +2.2 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.1 | −3.3 | −2.9 | +0.4 | +0.6 | −0.4 | +0.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.0 | −0.2 | −2.3 | −0.1 | −0.7 | −0.3 | −1.1 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.7 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −0.6 | +0.2 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +0.8 | −0.3 | −2.7 | −2.2 | +0.9 | +1.1 | +2.3 | +4.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Anett Kontaveit | Bernarda Pera | Net, Anett | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.0 | +0.8 | −4.8 | |
| 2 | +1.8 | +3.6 | −1.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Anett Kontaveit serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 17% | 14% 100% | 57% 58% |
| 2 | 56% 53% | 22% 50% | 22% 83% |
Within sets −1.94 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Bernarda Pera serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 68% 88% | 4% 0% | 28% 43% |
| 2 | 61% 63% | 3% 0% | 35% 73% |
Within sets +0.57 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Anett Kontaveit
3.6 points left on the table across 197 shots 1.80 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Bernarda Pera
4.7 points left on the table across 186 shots 2.50 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.19 pts