San Jose · R32 · Hard · 1 Aug 2022
Taylor Townsend v Storm Hunter
58–37 in points · Taylor Townsend won
Why it went the way it did
Taylor Townsend won 9.8 more points than Storm Hunter relative to what the serve alone predicted. Storm Hunter's biggest leaks: return execution −2.6, serve 2nd execution −1.5, forehand execution −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Taylor Townsend | Storm Hunter | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.3 | ±0.0 | +2.3 | +1.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.5 | −1.5 |
| Return | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.7 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −2.6 | −2.5 |
| Forehand | +0.7 | +1.5 | −1.1 | +1.1 | −0.7 | +1.1 | −1.0 | −0.6 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +1.8 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.2 | +0.7 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.3 | ±0.0 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.6 | +0.3 | +1.2 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | +0.1 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +0.7 | +0.7 | +4.4 | +5.8 | −1.0 | +0.4 | −3.4 | −4.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Taylor Townsend | Storm Hunter | Net, Taylor | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.4 | −3.1 | +7.4 | |
| 2 | +1.5 | −1.0 | +2.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Taylor Townsend serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 63% | 35% 88% | 30% 71% |
| 2 | 34% 80% | 31% 56% | 34% 80% |
Within sets −0.87 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Storm Hunter serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 40% | 40% 33% | 27% 25% |
| 2 | 39% 64% | 18% 40% | 43% 75% |
Within sets +1.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Taylor Townsend
3.6 points left on the table across 151 shots 2.39 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
Storm Hunter
5.5 points left on the table across 163 shots 3.39 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.25 pts