Washington · R16 · Hard · 5 Aug 2022
Reilly Opelka v Nick Kyrgios
49–64 in points · Nick Kyrgios won
Why it went the way it did
Nick Kyrgios won 6.2 more points than Reilly Opelka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Reilly Opelka's biggest leaks: slice execution −1.6, backhand execution −1.2, slice shot selection −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Reilly Opelka | Nick Kyrgios | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.9 | +1.0 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +6.8 | +7.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.8 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.7 | +0.8 | −0.3 | −0.3 | +1.9 | +1.4 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.3 | +0.5 | −0.8 | −0.6 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | −0.5 | −1.2 | −1.8 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −1.0 |
| Slice | −0.3 | −0.8 | −1.6 | −2.7 | −0.4 | −0.9 | −1.6 | −2.9 |
| Net | −0.3 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.9 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.2 | −0.8 | +6.7 | +4.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Reilly Opelka | Nick Kyrgios | Net, Reilly | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.3 | +3.4 | −1.1 | |
| 2 | −3.7 | +1.3 | −5.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Reilly Opelka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 56% 78% | 3% 0% | 41% 85% |
| 2 | 60% 42% | 5% 100% | 35% 57% |
Set to set −0.09 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.57 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nick Kyrgios serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 76% | – | 55% 81% |
| 2 | 65% 67% | – | 35% 88% |
Set to set −0.85 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Reilly Opelka
3.5 points left on the table across 87 shots 3.98 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Nick Kyrgios
4.1 points left on the table across 85 shots 4.77 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your middle hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts