Granby · R32 · Hard · 21 Aug 2022
Tatjana Maria v Nadia Podoroska
70–50 in points · Tatjana Maria won
Why it went the way it did
Tatjana Maria won 10.1 more points than Nadia Podoroska relative to what the serve alone predicted. Nadia Podoroska's biggest leaks: net execution −3.0, forehand execution −2.9, return execution −2.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tatjana Maria | Nadia Podoroska | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.2 |
| Return | +0.4 | −6.0 | +1.9 | −3.7 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −2.6 | −2.8 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.5 | −1.2 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +1.3 | −2.9 | −1.5 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.2 | −1.1 | −1.0 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −1.7 | −2.0 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −9.6 | +4.7 | −4.6 | −0.2 | −2.1 | −1.9 | −4.2 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.7 | +3.6 | +4.2 | +0.5 | +0.3 | −3.0 | −2.1 |
| Touch | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.6 |
| All shots | +1.4 | −13.2 | +7.6 | −4.2 | −0.1 | −0.9 | −13.4 | −14.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Tatjana Maria | Nadia Podoroska | Net, Tatjana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.8 | −7.1 | +1.3 | |
| 2 | +1.6 | −7.2 | +8.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tatjana Maria serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 67% | 7% 0% | 57% 50% |
| 2 | 35% 83% | 6% 100% | 59% 100% |
Set to set +0.02 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.56 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Nadia Podoroska serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41% 44% | 10% 75% | 49% 47% |
| 2 | 23% 40% | 9% 0% | 68% 53% |
Set to set +0.09 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tatjana Maria
6.2 points left on the table across 201 shots 3.09 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH slice crosscourt ×2; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
Nadia Podoroska
5.8 points left on the table across 193 shots 3.02 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×8; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts