Cleveland · F · Hard · 27 Aug 2022
Aliaksandra Sasnovich v Liudmila Samsonova
41–60 in points · Liudmila Samsonova won
Why it went the way it did
Liudmila Samsonova won 10.2 more points than Aliaksandra Sasnovich relative to what the serve alone predicted. Aliaksandra Sasnovich's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.5, forehand execution −2.4, backhand execution −0.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | Liudmila Samsonova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.7 |
| Return | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +2.3 | +3.2 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.8 | −2.4 | −1.7 | +0.6 | +1.2 | +4.3 | +6.1 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.4 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.5 | −0.6 | ±0.0 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.5 | +1.7 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.7 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.7 | −0.9 | −0.4 | −0.6 | +0.8 | +2.0 | +6.8 | +9.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | Liudmila Samsonova | Net, Aliaksandra | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.0 | +5.2 | −7.2 | |
| 2 | +1.4 | +4.4 | −3.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 64% 31% | 24% 17% | 12% 67% |
| 2 | 57% 59% | 13% 50% | 30% 67% |
Within sets +0.77 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Liudmila Samsonova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 67% | 19% 67% | 44% 57% |
| 2 | 43% 85% | 20% 67% | 37% 55% |
Within sets +1.61 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
3.8 points left on the table across 167 shots 2.29 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice down the line ×3; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Liudmila Samsonova
3.0 points left on the table across 169 shots 1.77 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts