US Open · R128 · Hard · 29 Aug 2022
Eleana Yu v Alison Riske Amritraj
45–63 in points · Alison Riske Amritraj won
Why it went the way it did
Alison Riske Amritraj won 9.9 more points than Eleana Yu relative to what the serve alone predicted. Eleana Yu's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.2, touch shot selection −1.9, forehand execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Eleana Yu | Alison Riske Amritraj | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.2 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | −1.6 | −1.3 |
| Forehand | −0.9 | +1.3 | −1.2 | −0.8 | +0.1 | +0.4 | −0.6 | −0.1 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.8 | +0.5 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +1.0 | +2.2 | +3.4 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −5.2 | +1.7 | −3.5 | +0.1 | −0.6 | +0.3 | −0.3 |
| Net | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +1.8 | +1.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.9 | ±0.0 | −2.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −1.5 | −5.6 | +0.9 | −6.3 | +0.3 | +1.2 | +2.2 | +3.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Eleana Yu | Alison Riske Amritraj | Net, Eleana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.2 | +4.4 | −5.6 | |
| 2 | −5.1 | −0.7 | −4.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Eleana Yu serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 29% 50% | 14% 100% | 57% 42% |
| 2 | 39% 67% | 29% 45% | 32% 67% |
Within sets +0.76 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alison Riske Amritraj serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 78% | 15% 67% | 40% 88% |
| 2 | 44% 67% | 19% 80% | 37% 90% |
Within sets −2.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Eleana Yu
7.2 points left on the table across 217 shots 3.32 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×1; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Alison Riske Amritraj
5.5 points left on the table across 234 shots 2.34 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH down the line rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts