US Open · R128 · Hard · 30 Aug 2022
Kaja Juvan v Cristina Bucsa
55–69 in points · Cristina Bucsa won
Why it went the way it did
Cristina Bucsa won 7.3 more points than Kaja Juvan relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kaja Juvan's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.0, slice shot selection −2.6, touch shot selection −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kaja Juvan | Cristina Bucsa | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.9 | −0.4 | +0.8 | −0.1 | +0.1 | −0.9 | −0.9 |
| Forehand | −0.9 | +1.9 | +2.3 | +3.3 | −0.6 | +1.1 | +3.6 | +4.2 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | +0.6 | −4.0 | −3.9 | −0.3 | +0.6 | +1.3 | +1.6 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.6 | +1.0 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | +0.4 | −1.3 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.8 | +0.8 | +1.7 | −0.2 | +0.7 | +0.8 | +1.3 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −2.4 | −0.8 | −3.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.3 | −0.7 |
| All shots | −1.5 | −0.9 | −0.6 | −2.9 | −1.6 | +0.4 | +5.5 | +4.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Kaja Juvan | Cristina Bucsa | Net, Kaja | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.4 | −0.4 | −4.0 | |
| 2 | +1.4 | +4.7 | −3.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kaja Juvan serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 36% | 39% 75% | 26% 75% |
| 2 | 46% 62% | 39% 45% | 14% 50% |
Set to set −1.39 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.70 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Cristina Bucsa serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 60% | 38% 67% | 31% 90% |
| 2 | 45% 64% | 26% 50% | 29% 78% |
Set to set −0.70 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kaja Juvan
8.3 points left on the table across 262 shots 3.18 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Cristina Bucsa
8.0 points left on the table across 252 shots 3.16 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH down the line rates higher · 0.39 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts