US Open · R16 · Hard · 5 Sep 2022
Karolina Pliskova v Victoria Azarenka
129–119 in points · Karolina Pliskova won
Why it went the way it did
Karolina Pliskova won 4.3 more points than Victoria Azarenka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Victoria Azarenka's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.4, serve 2nd execution −1.4, slice execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Karolina Pliskova | Victoria Azarenka | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.1 | +2.2 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.4 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +4.8 | +4.3 | +0.3 | −0.7 | +1.6 | +1.2 |
| Forehand | +0.9 | +2.5 | +8.0 | +11.5 | +0.3 | +2.6 | +8.8 | +11.7 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +7.5 | +9.0 | +0.3 | +1.2 | +5.3 | +6.7 |
| Slice | +0.4 | −4.7 | +0.4 | −3.9 | +0.3 | −3.4 | −0.8 | −3.9 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.5 | −1.2 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +0.3 | +1.0 |
| Touch | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.9 | +0.2 | +1.2 | −0.4 | +1.1 |
| All shots | +1.9 | −0.7 | +19.6 | +20.7 | +1.6 | +1.6 | +13.2 | +16.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Karolina Pliskova | Victoria Azarenka | Net, Karolina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +7.7 | +7.3 | +0.4 | |
| 2 | +4.5 | +7.3 | −2.7 | |
| 3 | +8.5 | +1.9 | +6.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Karolina Pliskova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 52% 58% | 14% 57% | 34% 47% |
| 2 | 35% 44% | 17% 44% | 48% 72% |
| 3 | 33% 56% | 19% 80% | 48% 69% |
Set to set +0.17 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Victoria Azarenka serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 54% 59% | 15% 33% | 32% 46% |
| 2 | 74% 68% | 17% 71% | 10% 25% |
| 3 | 51% 50% | 17% 33% | 31% 45% |
Set to set +1.03 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.13 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Karolina Pliskova
10.8 points left on the table across 473 shots 2.28 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts
Victoria Azarenka
10.8 points left on the table across 469 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×16; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.69 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.60 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts