San Diego · QF · Hard · 23 Sep 2022
Daniel Elahi Galan v Brandon Nakashima
76–79 in points · Brandon Nakashima won
Why it went the way it did
Brandon Nakashima won 1.7 more points than Daniel Elahi Galan relative to what the serve alone predicted. Daniel Elahi Galan's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −1.2, serve 1st execution −1.0, return execution −0.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Daniel Elahi Galan | Brandon Nakashima | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | −1.0 | −1.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.8 | +1.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Return | −0.5 | +0.9 | −0.7 | −0.4 | +0.2 | +0.8 | −0.5 | +0.6 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +2.6 | +3.5 | +6.3 | +0.2 | +3.8 | +3.7 | +7.7 |
| Backhand | +0.3 | +1.7 | +2.2 | +4.2 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +0.8 | +2.0 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.2 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −1.2 | +0.2 | −0.7 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.1 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.1 | −0.5 | +0.4 | −0.3 |
| All shots | −0.1 | +3.5 | +6.1 | +9.5 | +1.0 | +4.1 | +6.1 | +11.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Daniel Elahi Galan | Brandon Nakashima | Net, Daniel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.8 | +3.1 | −5.9 | |
| 2 | +6.5 | +2.2 | +4.3 | |
| 3 | +5.8 | +5.9 | −0.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Daniel Elahi Galan serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 40% | 8% 50% | 54% 64% |
| 2 | 50% 69% | 4% 100% | 46% 67% |
| 3 | 46% 50% | 4% 100% | 50% 85% |
Set to set +3.60 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.68 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Brandon Nakashima serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 88% | 15% 33% | 45% 89% |
| 2 | 54% 80% | 7% 0% | 39% 27% |
| 3 | 41% 50% | 3% 0% | 55% 88% |
Set to set −0.67 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Daniel Elahi Galan
7.2 points left on the table across 287 shots 2.51 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
Brandon Nakashima
6.4 points left on the table across 291 shots 2.20 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts