Astana · R32 · Hard · 4 Oct 2022
Maxime Cressy v Karen Khachanov
54–67 in points · Karen Khachanov won
Why it went the way it did
Karen Khachanov won 6.9 more points than Maxime Cressy relative to what the serve alone predicted. Maxime Cressy's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.3, serve 1st execution −1.9, net direction choices −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Maxime Cressy | Karen Khachanov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.4 | +2.6 | −1.9 | +1.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +5.3 | +5.3 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | +1.7 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.6 | +1.0 | +1.3 | −0.6 | −0.1 | +2.5 | +1.8 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.7 | −0.3 | +1.1 | +0.5 | +1.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −1.1 | −0.6 | +0.2 | −0.3 | +1.7 | +1.6 |
| Slice | −0.9 | −2.3 | +0.1 | −3.1 | −0.6 | −1.5 | +0.3 | −1.8 |
| Net | −1.6 | +0.7 | +2.7 | +1.8 | −0.3 | −0.1 | +1.4 | +1.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 |
| All shots | −2.2 | +3.9 | +1.8 | +3.5 | −1.4 | −1.0 | +12.9 | +10.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Maxime Cressy | Karen Khachanov | Net, Maxime | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −0.3 | +5.3 | −5.6 | |
| 2 | +3.8 | +5.2 | −1.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Maxime Cressy serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73% 74% | 8% 100% | 19% 20% |
| 2 | 58% 67% | – | 42% 87% |
Within sets −1.36 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Karen Khachanov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 92% | – | 41% 89% |
| 2 | 54% 85% | 8% 100% | 38% 64% |
Within sets +0.28 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Maxime Cressy
7.3 points left on the table across 129 shots 5.65 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.66 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
Karen Khachanov
6.5 points left on the table across 131 shots 4.96 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.54 pts
- Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts