Gijon · R32 · Hard · 10 Oct 2022
Joao Sousa v Dominic Thiem
23–53 in points · Dominic Thiem won
Why it went the way it did
Dominic Thiem won 15.9 more points than Joao Sousa relative to what the serve alone predicted. Joao Sousa's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.7, backhand execution −1.8, return execution −1.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Joao Sousa | Dominic Thiem | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.8 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.5 |
| Return | −0.3 | +0.5 | −1.2 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.3 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +3.0 | −3.7 | −0.7 | −0.2 | +1.1 | +2.9 | +3.8 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −1.8 | −1.4 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +2.1 | +3.0 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −0.8 | +0.3 | −0.6 | +0.1 | −1.6 | +0.1 | −1.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −1.0 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +1.8 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | +1.6 | +1.2 |
| All shots | −0.7 | +2.8 | −7.8 | −5.7 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +10.1 | +10.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Joao Sousa | Dominic Thiem | Net, Joao | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.7 | +4.9 | −7.6 | |
| 2 | −3.0 | +5.3 | −8.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Joao Sousa serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67% 38% | 13% 67% | 21% 60% |
| 2 | 59% 20% | 12% 50% | 29% 40% |
Within sets −1.07 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Dominic Thiem serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 57% | – | 65% 92% |
| 2 | 33% 60% | 7% 100% | 60% 89% |
Within sets +1.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Joao Sousa
4.8 points left on the table across 176 shots 2.71 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
Dominic Thiem
4.0 points left on the table across 177 shots 2.27 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts