Gijon · R32 · Hard · 10 Oct 2022
Tommy Paul v Martin Landaluce
65–41 in points · Tommy Paul won
Why it went the way it did
Tommy Paul won 14.6 more points than Martin Landaluce relative to what the serve alone predicted. Martin Landaluce's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −3.2, backhand execution −2.3, forehand execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tommy Paul | Martin Landaluce | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.4 | −1.2 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | −3.2 | −3.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.3 | −1.6 | −1.4 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.5 | +2.8 | +4.5 | −0.1 | +1.2 | −1.9 | −0.8 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.8 | +1.6 | +2.8 | +0.4 | +0.1 | −2.3 | −1.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.7 | −1.1 | −2.7 | −0.1 | −0.8 | −1.0 | −1.9 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | +1.1 | +1.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.6 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.3 |
| All shots | +0.4 | +0.8 | +2.3 | +3.5 | −0.4 | +0.6 | −11.3 | −11.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Tommy Paul | Martin Landaluce | Net, Tommy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.1 | −6.5 | +5.4 | |
| 2 | +4.6 | −4.6 | +9.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tommy Paul serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 71% | 14% 25% | 38% 91% |
| 2 | 46% 83% | 8% 100% | 46% 83% |
Within sets −0.44 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Martin Landaluce serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 47% | 29% 50% | 36% 73% |
| 2 | 29% 50% | 10% 100% | 62% 15% |
Set to set +1.55 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.05 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tommy Paul
4.7 points left on the table across 203 shots 2.30 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×2; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Martin Landaluce
4.0 points left on the table across 189 shots 2.14 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts