Guadalajara · R64 · Hard · 18 Oct 2022
Eugenie Bouchard v Kayla Day
63–52 in points · Eugenie Bouchard won
Why it went the way it did
Eugenie Bouchard won 4.1 more points than Kayla Day relative to what the serve alone predicted. Kayla Day's biggest leaks: return execution −2.0, slice shot selection −1.7, backhand execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Eugenie Bouchard | Kayla Day | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.7 | +1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Return | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.8 | −0.4 | −2.0 | −3.2 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.8 | −0.7 | −0.2 | −0.4 | +1.2 | +1.6 | +2.4 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.6 | −0.3 | +0.3 | −1.6 | −1.6 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −0.8 | −0.7 | −1.5 | ±0.0 | −1.7 | +0.2 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.5 | +0.6 | +1.3 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.7 |
| All shots | −0.2 | +1.0 | −0.7 | +0.2 | −1.7 | −0.8 | −1.4 | −3.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Eugenie Bouchard | Kayla Day | Net, Eugenie | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.7 | −2.4 | −0.3 | |
| 2 | +2.9 | −1.5 | +4.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Eugenie Bouchard serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51% 72% | 14% 0% | 34% 67% |
| 2 | 54% 73% | 29% 63% | 18% 60% |
Set to set −2.61 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Kayla Day serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 67% | 10% 33% | 52% 63% |
| 2 | 35% 57% | 30% 50% | 35% 43% |
Set to set −3.14 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −2.55 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Eugenie Bouchard
4.5 points left on the table across 177 shots 2.54 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
Kayla Day
7.5 points left on the table across 184 shots 4.09 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH down the line ×4; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.52 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.48 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH lob through the middle ×1; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts