BJK Cup Finals · RR · Hard · 12 Nov 2022
Caroline Garcia v Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove
74–56 in points · Caroline Garcia won
Why it went the way it did
Caroline Garcia won 10.2 more points than Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove relative to what the serve alone predicted. Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.0, return execution −3.4, backhand execution −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Caroline Garcia | Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +2.1 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.1 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.8 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.6 | −5.3 | −4.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −3.4 | −3.4 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +2.0 | −0.6 | +1.7 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | −4.0 | −2.9 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.2 | +1.3 | +1.6 | −0.4 | +0.8 | −2.0 | −1.6 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −0.4 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.3 | +0.2 | −1.0 | −0.5 | +0.1 | +0.3 | −0.2 | +0.2 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.1 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.1 | −0.9 |
| All shots | +1.0 | +2.1 | −3.7 | −0.6 | −0.9 | +0.3 | −10.2 | −10.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Caroline Garcia | Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove | Net, Caroline | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.1 | −3.6 | +5.7 | |
| 2 | −2.7 | −7.2 | +4.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Caroline Garcia serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 70% | 4% 100% | 52% 75% |
| 2 | 29% 90% | 18% 67% | 53% 56% |
Within sets +0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23% 83% | 50% 23% | 27% 71% |
| 2 | 21% 40% | 30% 64% | 49% 57% |
Within sets +1.27 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Caroline Garcia
3.4 points left on the table across 170 shots 1.99 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.11 pts
Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove
4.1 points left on the table across 154 shots 2.67 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts