Auckland · R32 · Hard · 3 Jan 2023
Elena Gabriela Ruse v Erin Routliffe
103–85 in points · Erin Routliffe won
Why it went the way it did
Elena Gabriela Ruse won 10.8 more points than Erin Routliffe relative to what the serve alone predicted. Erin Routliffe's biggest leaks: forehand execution −7.4, slice shot selection −4.6, slice execution −3.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Elena Gabriela Ruse | Erin Routliffe | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −0.4 | +0.2 | −0.7 | −0.9 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.6 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +1.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.0 | −0.3 | +1.6 | −3.1 | −1.8 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +1.0 | +3.3 | +4.2 | −0.3 | +1.1 | −7.4 | −6.6 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.1 | −2.9 | −3.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −0.6 | +0.1 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.1 | −1.8 | −4.0 | ±0.0 | −4.6 | −3.9 | −8.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +1.0 | +1.8 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.3 | −0.6 | −2.6 | −3.5 | −0.9 | −0.2 | −13.2 | −14.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Elena Gabriela Ruse | Erin Routliffe | Net, Elena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.7 | −6.6 | +7.3 | |
| 2 | −3.9 | −3.3 | −0.6 | |
| 3 | −0.3 | −4.3 | +4.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Elena Gabriela Ruse serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18% 100% | 12% 100% | 71% 83% |
| 2 | 34% 80% | 17% 80% | 48% 57% |
| 3 | 37% 36% | 8% 67% | 55% 52% |
Set to set −1.89 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.26 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Erin Routliffe serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 45% | 24% 57% | 38% 55% |
| 2 | 49% 88% | 20% 71% | 31% 36% |
| 3 | 34% 46% | 39% 27% | 26% 40% |
Set to set −0.05 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.67 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Elena Gabriela Ruse
7.2 points left on the table across 254 shots 2.83 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.31 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH crosscourt ×5; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH down the line ×4; BH through the middle rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Erin Routliffe
7.6 points left on the table across 245 shots 3.10 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle + approach ×2; BH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts