Pune · F · Hard · 7 Jan 2023
Benjamin Bonzi v Tallon Griekspoor
90–98 in points · Tallon Griekspoor won
Why it went the way it did
Tallon Griekspoor won 6.7 more points than Benjamin Bonzi relative to what the serve alone predicted. Benjamin Bonzi's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −2.4, return shot selection −1.4, touch execution −0.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Benjamin Bonzi | Tallon Griekspoor | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +3.4 | +3.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.1 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −1.3 | −1.5 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +2.7 | +0.7 | +3.4 | +0.5 | +2.6 | +2.5 | +5.5 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.8 | +2.9 | +3.5 | +0.3 | +1.3 | +1.3 | +2.9 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.4 | −0.1 | −2.6 | +0.4 | −3.3 | +2.0 | −1.0 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.5 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +0.4 | −1.9 | −1.2 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.8 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.7 | +1.5 | +0.9 |
| All shots | +0.7 | −0.2 | +1.2 | +1.7 | +1.9 | +0.2 | +6.4 | +8.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Benjamin Bonzi | Tallon Griekspoor | Net, Benjamin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.8 | +0.4 | +1.4 | |
| 2 | +0.3 | +1.8 | −1.5 | |
| 3 | −0.4 | +6.2 | −6.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Benjamin Bonzi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 91% | 4% 0% | 54% 71% |
| 2 | 43% 67% | 2% 100% | 55% 65% |
| 3 | 48% 56% | 6% 100% | 45% 33% |
Set to set +0.28 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.85 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tallon Griekspoor serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 69% | – | 41% 78% |
| 2 | 60% 67% | 11% 75% | 29% 80% |
| 3 | 55% 63% | 7% 100% | 38% 73% |
Set to set +0.32 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.48 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Benjamin Bonzi
6.0 points left on the table across 271 shots 2.22 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley down the line ×3; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Tallon Griekspoor
5.9 points left on the table across 293 shots 2.00 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts