Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 16 Jan 2023
Jessica Pegula v Jaqueline Cristian
61–32 in points · Jessica Pegula won
Why it went the way it did
Jessica Pegula won 14.7 more points than Jaqueline Cristian relative to what the serve alone predicted. Jaqueline Cristian's biggest leaks: forehand execution −5.9, slice shot selection −1.9, return execution −1.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Jessica Pegula | Jaqueline Cristian | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.6 |
| Return | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −1.0 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +0.8 | +0.1 | +1.0 | −5.9 | −4.9 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.8 | +4.1 | +5.0 | −0.3 | +1.0 | −1.0 | −0.3 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.2 | +0.8 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −1.9 | −0.2 | −2.2 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +1.2 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.5 | −1.0 |
| All shots | +0.6 | −0.1 | +6.1 | +6.6 | −0.7 | −0.9 | −6.4 | −8.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Jessica Pegula | Jaqueline Cristian | Net, Jessica | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +5.1 | −3.4 | +8.5 | |
| 2 | +1.6 | −4.7 | +6.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Jessica Pegula serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 100% | – | 56% 56% |
| 2 | 48% 86% | 7% 100% | 45% 46% |
Within sets +1.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jaqueline Cristian serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31% 33% | 21% 50% | 48% 36% |
| 2 | 32% 33% | 16% 67% | 53% 40% |
Set to set +0.42 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.76 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Jessica Pegula
3.8 points left on the table across 172 shots 2.18 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your forehand side hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Jaqueline Cristian
6.0 points left on the table across 188 shots 3.17 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Long rally, 9+: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts