Australian Open · R128 · Hard · 17 Jan 2023
Caroline Garcia v Katherine Sebov
57–29 in points · Caroline Garcia won
Why it went the way it did
Caroline Garcia won 14.1 more points than Katherine Sebov relative to what the serve alone predicted. Katherine Sebov's biggest leaks: return execution −3.3, forehand execution −3.3, backhand execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Caroline Garcia | Katherine Sebov | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.8 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | +0.4 | +1.1 | −1.6 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −3.3 | −3.4 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +1.6 | −0.2 | +0.5 | −3.3 | −3.0 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.0 | +1.3 | −0.6 | +0.6 | −2.1 | −2.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.9 | +0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.6 |
| Net | +0.5 | +0.2 | −0.4 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.1 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +1.3 | +1.2 | +1.2 | +3.8 | −1.6 | +0.3 | −9.1 | −10.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Caroline Garcia | Katherine Sebov | Net, Caroline | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.1 | −4.3 | +5.4 | |
| 2 | +2.6 | −6.1 | +8.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Caroline Garcia serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 90% | 11% 100% | 54% 67% |
| 2 | 50% 100% | – | 50% 71% |
Set to set −0.81 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +1.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Katherine Sebov serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 67% | 33% 44% | 33% 67% |
| 2 | 24% 25% | 59% 30% | 18% 33% |
Within sets −0.33 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Caroline Garcia
1.7 points left on the table across 106 shots 1.64 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle + approach ×1; BH crosscourt + approach rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
Katherine Sebov
4.0 points left on the table across 100 shots 3.99 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts