Australian Open · R32 · Hard · 20 Jan 2023
Marta Kostyuk v Jessica Pegula
44–64 in points · Jessica Pegula won
Why it went the way it did
Jessica Pegula won 10.6 more points than Marta Kostyuk relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marta Kostyuk's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.8, serve 2nd execution −2.7, slice shot selection −2.0.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marta Kostyuk | Jessica Pegula | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.7 | −2.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.5 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.2 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +1.5 | +1.9 |
| Forehand | ±0.0 | +1.0 | −1.7 | −0.6 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +1.4 | +1.9 |
| Backhand | −0.2 | +0.5 | −3.8 | −3.5 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.9 | +1.5 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −2.0 | +1.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −1.4 | −0.1 | −1.4 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.3 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +0.7 | +1.6 |
| Touch | −0.2 | −1.0 | −0.2 | −1.3 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 |
| All shots | +0.7 | −1.1 | −7.1 | −7.6 | +0.1 | +0.5 | +2.4 | +3.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Marta Kostyuk | Jessica Pegula | Net, Marta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.6 | +2.4 | −7.0 | |
| 2 | −3.0 | +0.6 | −3.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marta Kostyuk serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 54% | 10% 67% | 47% 21% |
| 2 | 43% 50% | 18% 20% | 39% 55% |
Set to set +1.44 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +2.75 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Jessica Pegula serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9% 100% | 30% 71% | 61% 57% |
| 2 | 19% 60% | 33% 33% | 48% 77% |
Within sets +0.79 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marta Kostyuk
4.2 points left on the table across 171 shots 2.48 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit BH drop shot through the middle ×1; BH drop shot down the line rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Jessica Pegula
4.0 points left on the table across 160 shots 2.51 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts