Australian Open · R32 · Hard · 21 Jan 2023
Laura Siegemund v Caroline Garcia
80–85 in points · Caroline Garcia won
Why it went the way it did
Caroline Garcia won 3.5 more points than Laura Siegemund relative to what the serve alone predicted. Laura Siegemund's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.3, slice shot selection −2.4, serve 1st direction choices −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Laura Siegemund | Caroline Garcia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −1.7 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | −0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +3.5 | +3.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.9 | +1.9 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| Return | +0.3 | −0.6 | −0.2 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | −5.3 | −3.8 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +2.0 | −3.3 | −0.9 | +0.3 | +1.8 | −3.5 | −1.3 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.2 | −0.8 | +0.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +0.9 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −2.4 | −0.3 | −2.8 | +0.1 | −1.2 | −0.4 | −1.5 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.6 | −0.4 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.3 | −0.9 | −2.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| All shots | −0.9 | −0.6 | −2.7 | −4.2 | +0.8 | +2.8 | −4.3 | −0.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Laura Siegemund | Caroline Garcia | Net, Laura | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.6 | −4.7 | +6.3 | |
| 2 | −3.2 | +1.3 | −4.6 | |
| 3 | −2.5 | +2.6 | −5.2 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Laura Siegemund serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9% 50% | 70% 81% | 22% 60% |
| 2 | 19% 80% | 63% 53% | 19% 60% |
| 3 | 29% 45% | 55% 43% | 16% 67% |
Set to set −0.72 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.11 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Caroline Garcia serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 67% | 7% 0% | 59% 44% |
| 2 | 50% 69% | 8% 50% | 42% 91% |
| 3 | 48% 64% | 9% 50% | 43% 70% |
Set to set +0.68 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.58 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Laura Siegemund
6.6 points left on the table across 233 shots 2.83 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH lob through the middle ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Caroline Garcia
6.2 points left on the table across 247 shots 2.50 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH down the line + approach rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH down the line rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×5; FH down the line rates higher · 0.24 pts