Australian Open · QF · Hard · 25 Jan 2023
Magda Linette v Karolina Pliskova
70–53 in points · Magda Linette won
Why it went the way it did
Magda Linette won 8.1 more points than Karolina Pliskova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Karolina Pliskova's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −2.3, slice shot selection −2.0, backhand execution −1.6.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Magda Linette | Karolina Pliskova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.7 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −2.4 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.7 | +0.7 | +1.4 | +0.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +1.2 | +3.3 | +4.9 | +0.7 | +1.8 | ±0.0 | +2.5 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.7 | +3.1 | +3.7 | +0.3 | +0.4 | −1.6 | −0.8 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.6 | −1.2 | −2.8 | +0.2 | −2.0 | +1.3 | −0.5 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −0.6 |
| All shots | +0.4 | +1.0 | +6.8 | +8.3 | +1.8 | −0.3 | −1.4 | +0.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Magda Linette | Karolina Pliskova | Net, Magda | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.6 | −0.8 | +5.4 | |
| 2 | +3.7 | +1.0 | +2.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Magda Linette serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 55% | 11% 67% | 50% 79% |
| 2 | 47% 65% | 14% 60% | 39% 86% |
Within sets −1.78 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Karolina Pliskova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 40% | 10% 0% | 40% 63% |
| 2 | 51% 65% | 13% 60% | 36% 64% |
Within sets −0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Magda Linette
5.0 points left on the table across 226 shots 2.23 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×8; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
Karolina Pliskova
4.2 points left on the table across 236 shots 1.77 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts