Australian Open · R32 · Hard · 25 Jan 2023
Camila Giorgi v Belinda Bencic
57–74 in points · result not charted to completion
Why it went the way it did
Belinda Bencic won 8.7 more points than Camila Giorgi relative to what the serve alone predicted. Camila Giorgi's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.4, return execution −2.4, serve 2nd execution −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Camila Giorgi | Belinda Bencic | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.9 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.4 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.1 | −2.4 | −2.5 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.0 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +1.4 | −3.4 | −2.4 | −0.5 | +1.0 | +3.5 | +4.0 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.8 | −0.6 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −1.2 | −0.5 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.9 | −0.6 | −1.6 | +0.1 | −1.3 | −0.7 | −1.9 |
| Net | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.1 |
| All shots | −0.8 | +1.3 | −9.1 | −8.6 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.1 | +0.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Camila Giorgi | Belinda Bencic | Net, Camila | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.1 | +0.7 | −4.9 | |
| 2 | −4.4 | −0.6 | −3.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Camila Giorgi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 58% | 27% 38% | 33% 50% |
| 2 | 35% 38% | 14% 60% | 51% 53% |
Set to set −0.27 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.25 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Belinda Bencic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 56% | 24% 83% | 40% 70% |
| 2 | 41% 63% | 18% 57% | 41% 56% |
Within sets +0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Camila Giorgi
6.3 points left on the table across 210 shots 2.99 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
Belinda Bencic
5.0 points left on the table across 200 shots 2.51 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts