Australian Open Juniors · F · Hard · 28 Jan 2023
Learner Tien v Alexander Blockx
96–92 in points · Alexander Blockx won
Why it went the way it did
Learner Tien won 5.9 more points than Alexander Blockx relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexander Blockx's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −3.2, touch shot selection −2.1, touch execution −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Learner Tien | Alexander Blockx | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.2 | −1.1 | −1.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −0.7 | +3.8 | +3.0 | −0.3 | −0.7 | +6.8 | +5.8 |
| Forehand | +0.8 | +3.4 | +4.6 | +8.7 | −0.4 | +2.9 | +1.7 | +4.2 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.9 | +6.0 | +7.0 | −0.9 | +2.2 | +5.0 | +6.3 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −3.4 | +0.1 | −3.1 | +0.2 | −3.2 | −0.2 | −3.3 |
| Net | +0.9 | +0.1 | +1.5 | +2.4 | −0.4 | +0.5 | +2.0 | +2.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −1.4 | +0.4 | −1.0 | −0.2 | −2.1 | −1.4 | −3.8 |
| All shots | +2.1 | −1.3 | +15.6 | +16.4 | −2.2 | −0.6 | +13.3 | +10.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Learner Tien | Alexander Blockx | Net, Learner | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.4 | +2.9 | −5.3 | |
| 2 | +8.2 | +1.3 | +6.9 | |
| 3 | +10.6 | +6.3 | +4.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Learner Tien serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 37% 43% | 11% 0% | 53% 40% |
| 2 | 45% 67% | 5% 100% | 50% 90% |
| 3 | 33% 79% | 2% 100% | 64% 70% |
Set to set +0.09 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.33 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexander Blockx serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 82% | 11% 50% | 28% 40% |
| 2 | 50% 46% | 12% 33% | 38% 60% |
| 3 | 51% 65% | 8% 80% | 41% 60% |
Set to set +0.53 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.21 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Learner Tien
12.0 points left on the table across 536 shots 2.23 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×6; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.43 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.39 pts
Alexander Blockx
14.1 points left on the table across 539 shots 2.62 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×29; BH crosscourt rates higher · 1.12 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×25; BH crosscourt rates higher · 1.04 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×9; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.43 pts