Marseille · F · Hard · 26 Feb 2023
Hubert Hurkacz v Benjamin Bonzi
76–61 in points · Hubert Hurkacz won
Why it went the way it did
Hubert Hurkacz won 7.3 more points than Benjamin Bonzi relative to what the serve alone predicted. Benjamin Bonzi's biggest leaks: return execution −3.0, forehand execution −2.2, slice shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Hubert Hurkacz | Benjamin Bonzi | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | −0.1 | +3.6 | +3.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 |
| Return | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.4 | +0.1 | −0.7 | −3.0 | −3.5 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.7 | +1.0 | +2.8 | +0.3 | +1.7 | −2.2 | −0.2 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.4 | −3.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 | +0.9 | −0.3 | +0.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.5 | +0.2 | −1.2 | +0.1 | −1.4 | −0.8 | −2.2 |
| Net | −0.2 | +0.1 | +2.0 | +1.9 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.9 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.4 | −0.2 | −1.7 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | −0.4 | +0.1 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.4 | +0.1 | +2.7 | +2.3 | +1.2 | +1.0 | −7.2 | −5.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Hubert Hurkacz | Benjamin Bonzi | Net, Hubert | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.9 | −2.5 | +5.3 | |
| 2 | −0.5 | −2.5 | +2.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Hubert Hurkacz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 78% | 29% 71% | 33% 75% |
| 2 | 56% 80% | 2% 100% | 42% 68% |
Within sets +0.06 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Benjamin Bonzi serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 56% | 9% 50% | 52% 50% |
| 2 | 47% 71% | 9% 75% | 44% 70% |
Within sets +0.01 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Hubert Hurkacz
5.9 points left on the table across 213 shots 2.77 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×3; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court, server rushing the net hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
Benjamin Bonzi
4.0 points left on the table across 206 shots 1.95 per 100 shots
- Long rally, 9+: lob to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your forehand side, opponent at net, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Return +1: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts