Acapulco · R32 · Hard · 27 Feb 2023
Christopher Eubanks v Feliciano Lopez
67–78 in points · Feliciano Lopez won
Why it went the way it did
Feliciano Lopez won 5.7 more points than Christopher Eubanks relative to what the serve alone predicted. Christopher Eubanks's biggest leaks: forehand execution −8.0, return execution −3.7, net execution −2.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Christopher Eubanks | Feliciano Lopez | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −1.4 | +0.1 | +1.3 | −0.9 | +0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.6 | −0.3 |
| Return | −0.7 | −0.8 | −3.7 | −5.2 | ±0.0 | −1.9 | −3.4 | −5.3 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.2 | −8.0 | −6.6 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.3 | −1.1 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | −0.1 | −0.6 | −1.2 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.3 | −0.2 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.8 | ±0.0 | −1.6 | +0.1 | −1.5 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.2 | −2.4 | −2.3 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −2.7 | −3.4 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | −0.7 |
| All shots | −0.9 | −0.1 | −16.7 | −17.6 | −0.5 | −2.3 | −9.1 | −11.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Christopher Eubanks | Feliciano Lopez | Net, Christopher | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −10.0 | −7.6 | −2.4 | |
| 2 | −7.6 | −4.3 | −3.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Christopher Eubanks serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44% 60% | 2% 100% | 53% 67% |
| 2 | 41% 73% | 4% 0% | 56% 53% |
Set to set +0.41 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.20 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Feliciano Lopez serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 40% 78% | 7% 67% | 53% 63% |
| 2 | 31% 63% | 12% 67% | 58% 73% |
Set to set −0.23 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Christopher Eubanks
5.2 points left on the table across 150 shots 3.44 per 100 shots
- Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
Feliciano Lopez
6.4 points left on the table across 137 shots 4.70 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.32 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice crosscourt ×2; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×2; BH slice inside-in rates higher · 0.25 pts