Acapulco · QF · Hard · 2 Mar 2023
Tommy Paul v Mackenzie Mcdonald
57–31 in points · Tommy Paul won
Why it went the way it did
Tommy Paul won 13.3 more points than Mackenzie Mcdonald relative to what the serve alone predicted. Mackenzie Mcdonald's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.8, backhand execution −2.1, slice shot selection −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tommy Paul | Mackenzie Mcdonald | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +3.8 | +3.7 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Return | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +2.2 | +2.2 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +2.1 | +2.4 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.9 | +3.4 | +4.8 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −3.8 | −2.8 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.6 | +1.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −2.1 | −1.7 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −1.3 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −1.1 | +0.8 | −0.1 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | −0.3 | +0.5 | +0.2 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| All shots | +0.4 | −0.3 | +11.7 | +11.8 | +0.4 | +0.3 | −2.2 | −1.6 |
Set by set
| Set | Tommy Paul | Mackenzie Mcdonald | Net, Tommy | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +4.2 | −0.6 | +4.8 | |
| 2 | +7.6 | −1.0 | +8.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tommy Paul serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 58% 73% | 8% 50% | 35% 67% |
| 2 | 53% 89% | 12% 100% | 35% 100% |
Within sets −0.37 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Mackenzie Mcdonald serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 44% | – | 57% 50% |
| 2 | 42% 50% | – | 58% 50% |
Within sets −0.16 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tommy Paul
3.3 points left on the table across 142 shots 2.33 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drop shot to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×1; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley down the line ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH slice through the middle ×2; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Mackenzie Mcdonald
2.9 points left on the table across 138 shots 2.13 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts