Indian Wells · R128 · Hard · 8 Mar 2023
Marta Kostyuk v Rebecca Peterson
125–126 in points · Rebecca Peterson won
Why it went the way it did
Rebecca Peterson won 0.4 more points than Marta Kostyuk relative to what the serve alone predicted. Marta Kostyuk's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −5.4, serve 2nd execution −5.0, forehand direction choices −0.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Marta Kostyuk | Rebecca Peterson | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −1.4 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −5.0 | −4.7 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.0 |
| Return | +0.3 | +0.4 | +3.4 | +4.1 | −0.1 | +0.7 | +2.6 | +3.2 |
| Forehand | −0.9 | +4.8 | +1.8 | +5.8 | −0.4 | +3.2 | −2.2 | +0.6 |
| Backhand | −0.9 | +2.0 | +2.5 | +3.6 | −0.7 | +2.0 | +2.2 | +3.5 |
| Slice | −0.4 | −5.4 | +2.2 | −3.6 | +0.1 | −2.1 | −0.8 | −2.9 |
| Net | +0.1 | +0.9 | −0.5 | +0.4 | −0.2 | +0.3 | +0.5 | +0.6 |
| Touch | +0.3 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +0.1 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.1 |
| All shots | −1.9 | +3.0 | +3.8 | +5.0 | −1.3 | +3.5 | +3.2 | +5.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Marta Kostyuk | Rebecca Peterson | Net, Marta | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −1.7 | −0.6 | −1.1 | |
| 2 | +5.5 | +3.0 | +2.4 | |
| 3 | +1.2 | +2.9 | −1.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Marta Kostyuk serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 47% | 30% 55% | 24% 56% |
| 2 | 41% 63% | 36% 50% | 23% 56% |
| 3 | 57% 57% | 33% 38% | 10% 60% |
Set to set +0.52 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.33 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Rebecca Peterson serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43% 43% | 24% 67% | 33% 63% |
| 2 | 55% 48% | 21% 38% | 24% 67% |
| 3 | 49% 63% | 28% 27% | 23% 67% |
Set to set −0.06 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.46 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Marta Kostyuk
16.7 points left on the table across 560 shots 2.99 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.67 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×12; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×11; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.57 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×12; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.56 pts
Rebecca Peterson
15.4 points left on the table across 540 shots 2.85 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×13; FH inside-out rates higher · 1.48 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×22; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.94 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×11; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.93 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×13; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.91 pts