Miami · R32 · Hard · 25 Mar 2023
Petra Martic v Elise Mertens
62–73 in points · Elise Mertens won
Why it went the way it did
Elise Mertens won 3.4 more points than Petra Martic relative to what the serve alone predicted. Petra Martic's biggest leaks: forehand execution −2.7, slice shot selection −2.2, serve 1st execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Petra Martic | Elise Mertens | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −1.8 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +1.1 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −4.4 | −4.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.9 | −0.2 | −0.4 | +1.8 | +1.3 |
| Forehand | −0.1 | +2.2 | −2.7 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | +1.1 | +1.6 | +2.8 |
| Backhand | +0.4 | +0.9 | −1.0 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +0.5 |
| Slice | −0.7 | −2.2 | −0.2 | −3.1 | −0.1 | −2.6 | +0.3 | −2.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +1.1 | −1.7 | −0.6 | −0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | +0.3 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −1.9 | +1.3 | −0.8 |
| All shots | +0.2 | +2.1 | −7.5 | −5.2 | ±0.0 | −2.9 | +1.1 | −1.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Petra Martic | Elise Mertens | Net, Petra | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −3.6 | −3.6 | ±0.0 | |
| 2 | −1.6 | +1.8 | −3.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Petra Martic serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 63% 60% | 13% 67% | 25% 83% |
| 2 | 76% 36% | 14% 25% | 10% 33% |
Within sets −0.47 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Elise Mertens serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 47% 56% | 18% 86% | 34% 62% |
| 2 | 41% 56% | 11% 40% | 48% 48% |
Set to set −1.05 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.97 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Petra Martic
6.7 points left on the table across 216 shots 3.11 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×2; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.28 pts
Elise Mertens
6.4 points left on the table across 198 shots 3.24 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×2; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts