Monte Carlo Masters · R64 · Clay · 9 Apr 2023
Nicolas Jarry v Borna Coric
56–35 in points · Nicolas Jarry won
Why it went the way it did
Nicolas Jarry won 11.1 more points than Borna Coric relative to what the serve alone predicted. Borna Coric's biggest leaks: backhand execution −4.2, slice shot selection −1.9, backhand shot selection −1.5.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Nicolas Jarry | Borna Coric | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.1 | −0.1 | +4.0 | +4.0 | +0.2 | −0.1 | +1.5 | +1.5 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.6 | +1.6 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.3 | +1.4 |
| Return | −0.2 | +0.1 | +1.7 | +1.6 | +0.1 | −0.6 | +0.8 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | −0.4 | +1.0 | +0.6 | +1.2 | −0.2 | +0.6 | −0.9 | −0.6 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | −0.9 | −0.1 | −1.5 | −0.5 | −1.5 | −4.2 | −6.2 |
| Slice | −0.2 | −1.1 | −1.1 | −2.4 | −0.3 | −1.9 | −0.8 | −3.0 |
| Net | −0.3 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.5 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.4 |
| All shots | −1.6 | −0.8 | +6.5 | +4.1 | −0.8 | −3.5 | −2.7 | −7.0 |
Set by set
| Set | Nicolas Jarry | Borna Coric | Net, Nicolas | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.4 | −4.4 | +6.7 | |
| 2 | +1.8 | −2.6 | +4.4 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Nicolas Jarry serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 65% 77% | 5% 100% | 30% 83% |
| 2 | 43% 100% | – | 57% 77% |
Within sets −0.32 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Borna Coric serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 50% | – | 54% 50% |
| 2 | 59% 69% | – | 41% 67% |
Within sets −0.31 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Nicolas Jarry
5.4 points left on the table across 160 shots 3.37 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH down the line rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Borna Coric
4.9 points left on the table across 156 shots 3.11 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Serve +1: drive to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.26 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts