Monte Carlo Masters · R32 · Clay · 12 Apr 2023
Diego Schwartzman v Jannik Sinner
11–40 in points · Jannik Sinner won
Why it went the way it did
Jannik Sinner won 14.6 more points than Diego Schwartzman relative to what the serve alone predicted. Diego Schwartzman's biggest leaks: forehand execution −4.3, backhand execution −3.6, serve 2nd execution −3.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Diego Schwartzman | Jannik Sinner | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −1.1 | −1.2 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.6 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −3.3 | −3.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.5 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.8 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.5 | −4.3 | −4.1 | −0.5 | +0.5 | −0.6 | −0.6 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −3.6 | −4.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.4 | −0.3 | −13.7 | −14.4 | −0.4 | +0.5 | +0.1 | +0.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Diego Schwartzman | Jannik Sinner | Net, Diego | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −9.2 | −1.1 | −8.1 | |
| 2 | −5.2 | +1.3 | −6.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Diego Schwartzman serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 14% | 14% 50% | 36% 0% |
| 2 | 33% 50% | 17% 0% | 50% 33% |
Jannik Sinner serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 59% 80% | 6% 0% | 35% 67% |
| 2 | 50% 100% | 25% 100% | 25% 100% |
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Diego Schwartzman
2.4 points left on the table across 91 shots 2.58 per 100 shots
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.12 pts
Jannik Sinner
2.5 points left on the table across 82 shots 3.00 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH through the middle + approach ×1; FH inside-out + approach rates higher · 0.24 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, ad court hit FH down the line ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.18 pts