Madrid Masters · R128 · Clay · 26 Apr 2023

Maxime Cressy v Stan Wawrinka

91–103 in points · Stan Wawrinka won

Why it went the way it did

Stan Wawrinka won 6.2 more points than Maxime Cressy relative to what the serve alone predicted. Maxime Cressy's biggest leaks: return execution −6.5, serve 2nd execution −4.0, net execution −3.8.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

Shot	Maxime Cressy				Stan Wawrinka
Shot	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total
Serve 1st	−0.1	+3.3	−1.1	+2.1	+0.2	±0.0	+3.9	+4.0
Serve 2nd	−0.1	+1.3	−4.0	−2.9	±0.0	±0.0	+1.2	+1.2
Return	−0.2	−0.7	−6.5	−7.4	−0.5	−1.5	−7.8	−9.8
Forehand	±0.0	+0.8	−1.2	−0.4	−0.1	+1.1	−3.7	−2.8
Backhand	−0.1	+0.2	−2.2	−2.1	±0.0	+0.4	+0.3	+0.8
Slice	±0.0	−1.1	+0.7	−0.4	−0.1	−1.4	±0.0	−1.6
Net	+0.4	+0.1	−3.8	−3.3	±0.0	+0.1	+0.3	+0.4
Touch	±0.0	−0.1	+0.1	±0.0	+0.2	−1.0	−0.3	−1.1
Other	±0.0	−0.5	−0.1	−0.6	±0.0	±0.0	±0.0	±0.0
All shots	−0.1	+3.4	−18.3	−15.0	−0.3	−2.4	−6.1	−8.8

Set by set

Set	Maxime Cressy	Stan Wawrinka	Net, Maxime
1	−4.4	−6.7	+2.2
2	−4.3	+0.1	−4.4
3	−6.3	−2.2	−4.1

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Maxime Cressy serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	43% 93%	14% 100%	43% 67%
2	63% 67%	–	38% 56%
3	59% 70%	10% 100%	31% 67%

Set to set +0.62 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.71 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Stan Wawrinka serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	57% 81%	8% 67%	35% 69%
2	48% 83%	4% 0%	48% 83%
3	47% 81%	–	53% 89%

Set to set −0.71 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.50 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Maxime Cressy

6.5 points left on the table across 180 shots 3.64 per 100 shots

Return +1: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.33 pts
Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.28 pts
Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.26 pts

Stan Wawrinka

7.5 points left on the table across 182 shots 4.10 per 100 shots

Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×10; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.58 pts
Return +1: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×3; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.53 pts
Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.40 pts