Roland Garros · Q1 · Clay · 22 May 2023
Emma Lene v Noma Noha Akugue
122–129 in points · Noma Noha Akugue won
Why it went the way it did
Noma Noha Akugue won 1.8 more points than Emma Lene relative to what the serve alone predicted. Emma Lene's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −18.9, touch shot selection −9.2, return shot selection −7.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Emma Lene | Noma Noha Akugue | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.4 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.9 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | −3.1 | −3.8 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.9 | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.6 | +0.8 |
| Return | −0.6 | −7.9 | +0.8 | −7.7 | −0.2 | +0.5 | +2.1 | +2.5 |
| Forehand | −0.7 | +5.3 | +3.4 | +8.0 | +0.4 | +4.1 | −14.2 | −9.8 |
| Backhand | −0.5 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | +1.0 |
| Slice | −1.9 | −18.9 | +7.4 | −13.4 | −0.2 | −4.3 | −1.8 | −6.3 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.3 | +0.1 | +1.8 | −5.7 | −3.8 |
| Touch | −1.5 | −9.2 | +0.9 | −9.8 | −0.5 | −0.7 | −1.4 | −2.6 |
| Other | ±0.0 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.5 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −5.9 | −29.2 | +11.3 | −23.8 | −0.8 | +1.5 | −22.8 | −22.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Emma Lene | Noma Noha Akugue | Net, Emma | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −16.8 | −12.2 | −4.7 | |
| 2 | +0.2 | −3.6 | +3.8 | |
| 3 | −7.2 | −6.3 | −0.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Emma Lene serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 46% | 29% 38% | 25% 64% |
| 2 | 39% 67% | 29% 78% | 32% 70% |
| 3 | 35% 45% | 29% 56% | 35% 36% |
Set to set +1.76 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Noma Noha Akugue serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 45% 55% | 30% 46% | 25% 73% |
| 2 | 31% 43% | 33% 53% | 36% 75% |
| 3 | 40% 65% | 40% 35% | 19% 50% |
Set to set −0.62 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.70 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Emma Lene
24.8 points left on the table across 623 shots 3.98 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×29; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 1.74 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×17; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.89 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×14; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.85 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH lob through the middle ×5; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.73 pts
Noma Noha Akugue
18.7 points left on the table across 653 shots 2.87 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×3; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.75 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.65 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.64 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×7; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.62 pts