Rabat · R32 · Clay · 23 May 2023
Tatjana Maria v Tatiana Prozorova
114–96 in points · Tatjana Maria won
Why it went the way it did
Tatjana Maria won 9.0 more points than Tatiana Prozorova relative to what the serve alone predicted. Tatiana Prozorova's biggest leaks: forehand execution −10.6, backhand execution −5.8, slice shot selection −5.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Tatjana Maria | Tatiana Prozorova | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.9 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.7 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
| Return | +0.3 | −9.1 | +4.7 | −4.1 | −0.1 | −0.8 | +0.7 | −0.1 |
| Forehand | +0.1 | +1.9 | −0.2 | +1.8 | +0.5 | +2.7 | −10.6 | −7.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.5 | −0.9 | −0.5 | +0.1 | −0.8 | −5.8 | −6.5 |
| Slice | +1.8 | −24.9 | +7.6 | −15.5 | −0.4 | −5.2 | −2.2 | −7.7 |
| Net | −0.4 | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.0 | −1.9 | ±0.0 |
| Touch | −0.1 | −1.2 | +0.9 | −0.4 | −0.2 | −0.9 | −2.6 | −3.7 |
| All shots | +1.5 | −32.6 | +12.8 | −18.3 | +0.4 | −4.0 | −23.7 | −27.3 |
Set by set
| Set | Tatjana Maria | Tatiana Prozorova | Net, Tatjana | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −7.1 | −10.2 | +3.1 | |
| 2 | −10.5 | −8.6 | −1.9 | |
| 3 | −0.7 | −8.5 | +7.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Tatjana Maria serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24% 44% | 29% 36% | 47% 78% |
| 2 | 28% 62% | 23% 55% | 49% 43% |
| 3 | 47% 78% | 26% 60% | 26% 80% |
Set to set +0.11 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −0.03 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Tatiana Prozorova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 28% 45% | 30% 42% | 43% 59% |
| 2 | 43% 59% | 28% 55% | 30% 50% |
| 3 | 29% 29% | 46% 45% | 25% 33% |
Set to set −1.84 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.12 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Tatjana Maria
12.7 points left on the table across 419 shots 3.02 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×14; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.84 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.45 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, body, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×5; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.44 pts
Tatiana Prozorova
11.5 points left on the table across 451 shots 2.55 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×7; BH down the line rates higher · 0.76 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×13; BH down the line rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×9; BH down the line rates higher · 0.33 pts