Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 28 May 2023
Kamilla Rakhimova v Sara Bejlek
50–32 in points · Kamilla Rakhimova won
Why it went the way it did
Kamilla Rakhimova won 8.4 more points than Sara Bejlek relative to what the serve alone predicted. Sara Bejlek's biggest leaks: forehand execution −3.5, touch execution −2.4, serve 2nd execution −1.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Kamilla Rakhimova | Sara Bejlek | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.3 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.3 |
| Return | +0.2 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +1.7 | +0.2 | +0.5 | −0.2 | +0.5 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +0.9 | −1.2 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.8 | −3.5 | −2.5 |
| Backhand | +0.2 | +0.2 | +1.6 | +1.9 | −0.2 | +0.3 | −0.5 | −0.4 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.1 | −0.3 | −1.3 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −0.2 | −1.4 |
| Net | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.5 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.2 | +0.2 |
| Touch | +0.2 | −2.0 | +1.1 | −0.7 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −2.4 | −2.5 |
| All shots | +0.9 | −1.7 | +1.5 | +0.8 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | −8.3 | −7.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Kamilla Rakhimova | Sara Bejlek | Net, Kamilla | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.2 | −5.7 | +7.9 | |
| 2 | −1.4 | −2.0 | +0.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Kamilla Rakhimova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 82% | 22% 50% | 17% 67% |
| 2 | 39% 64% | 29% 13% | 32% 56% |
Within sets −1.87 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Sara Bejlek serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33% 20% | 40% 33% | 27% 25% |
| 2 | 40% 25% | 35% 71% | 25% 20% |
Within sets −0.43 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Kamilla Rakhimova
2.9 points left on the table across 166 shots 1.77 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
Sara Bejlek
5.1 points left on the table across 181 shots 2.81 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.86 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×6; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.29 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH drop shot through the middle ×1; BH drop shot down the line rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts