Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 28 May 2023
Magdalena Frech v Shuai Zhang
52–22 in points · Magdalena Frech won
Why it went the way it did
Magdalena Frech won 14.8 more points than Shuai Zhang relative to what the serve alone predicted. Shuai Zhang's biggest leaks: serve 2nd execution −2.5, return execution −2.2, serve 1st execution −1.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Magdalena Frech | Shuai Zhang | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +0.5 | +0.7 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.1 | −1.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.9 | +0.9 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.5 | −2.5 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.4 | +0.8 | +1.4 | +0.1 | +0.1 | −2.2 | −2.0 |
| Forehand | +0.2 | +1.0 | +2.6 | +3.8 | +0.4 | +1.9 | −0.7 | +1.6 |
| Backhand | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.9 | +2.1 | +0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −1.4 | +0.9 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.3 | −0.5 |
| Net | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.6 | −0.7 |
| Touch | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.9 | +1.3 | −0.2 | −0.6 | +0.6 | −0.1 |
| All shots | +0.9 | +0.3 | +8.4 | +9.6 | +0.4 | +1.3 | −6.9 | −5.2 |
Set by set
| Set | Magdalena Frech | Shuai Zhang | Net, Magdalena | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +3.8 | −2.9 | +6.7 | |
| 2 | +5.8 | −2.3 | +8.1 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Magdalena Frech serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 80% | 5% 100% | 45% 78% |
| 2 | 42% 63% | 11% 0% | 47% 78% |
Within sets +0.81 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Shuai Zhang serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36% 60% | 29% 25% | 36% 40% |
| 2 | 43% 33% | 24% 20% | 33% 14% |
Within sets ±0.00 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Magdalena Frech
2.9 points left on the table across 135 shots 2.16 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: smash to your middle, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH lob down the line ×1; BH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Shuai Zhang
2.9 points left on the table across 147 shots 1.96 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH lob down the line ×2; FH lob crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts