Roland Garros · R128 · Clay · 30 May 2023
Anhelina Kalinina v Diane Parry
45–62 in points · Diane Parry won
Why it went the way it did
Diane Parry won 8.4 more points than Anhelina Kalinina relative to what the serve alone predicted. Anhelina Kalinina's biggest leaks: backhand execution −3.5, slice execution −2.4, slice shot selection −2.2.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Anhelina Kalinina | Diane Parry | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.2 | ±0.0 | +1.5 | +1.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.6 | −0.5 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.0 | +1.1 |
| Return | +0.2 | −0.2 | +1.4 | +1.4 | −0.2 | −2.0 | +1.0 | −1.2 |
| Forehand | +0.7 | +1.5 | −1.1 | +1.0 | +0.2 | +2.7 | +3.4 | +6.3 |
| Backhand | +0.9 | −0.3 | −3.5 | −2.9 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −0.1 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.2 | −2.4 | −4.6 | +0.5 | −6.7 | +2.6 | −3.6 |
| Net | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +1.4 | +1.6 |
| Touch | +0.3 | −1.0 | +0.1 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| All shots | +1.7 | −2.1 | −3.4 | −3.8 | +0.4 | −5.8 | +10.1 | +4.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Anhelina Kalinina | Diane Parry | Net, Anhelina | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −4.2 | +1.4 | −5.6 | |
| 2 | +0.4 | +3.3 | −2.9 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Anhelina Kalinina serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% 55% | 32% 43% | 18% 50% |
| 2 | 40% 57% | 31% 45% | 29% 70% |
Within sets +1.10 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Diane Parry serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 38% 75% | 14% 33% | 48% 90% |
| 2 | 46% 69% | 25% 57% | 29% 75% |
Within sets −0.69 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Anhelina Kalinina
4.5 points left on the table across 252 shots 1.79 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return +1: slice to your backhand side hit BH crosscourt ×5; BH down the line rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.17 pts
Diane Parry
6.7 points left on the table across 253 shots 2.66 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.42 pts
- Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×6; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.38 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×7; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.37 pts