Roland Garros · R32 · Clay · 3 Jun 2023

Thiago Seyboth Wild v Yoshihito Nishioka

157–150 in points · Yoshihito Nishioka won

Why it went the way it did

Thiago Seyboth Wild won 1.8 more points than Yoshihito Nishioka relative to what the serve alone predicted. Yoshihito Nishioka's biggest leaks: forehand execution −8.0, slice shot selection −4.2, touch shot selection −2.3.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

Shot	Thiago Seyboth Wild				Yoshihito Nishioka
Shot	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total	Dir	Sel	Exec	Total
Serve 1st	+0.2	+0.4	−2.4	−1.9	−0.3	−0.3	−1.5	−2.1
Serve 2nd	−0.3	−0.1	−1.1	−1.4	±0.0	±0.0	+0.1	+0.1
Return	−1.0	+1.0	+1.3	+1.4	+0.3	−0.3	+4.0	+4.1
Forehand	±0.0	+6.2	−2.6	+3.5	+0.9	+4.6	−8.0	−2.6
Backhand	−0.7	−0.3	+2.9	+1.9	−0.1	+0.1	+5.5	+5.6
Slice	+0.2	−3.0	+1.4	−1.5	+0.1	−4.2	+0.7	−3.4
Net	+0.6	+0.3	+1.1	+2.0	+0.3	+0.2	+1.4	+1.9
Touch	+0.1	−1.7	+1.4	−0.3	−0.1	−2.3	+0.5	−1.9
All shots	−0.9	+2.8	+1.8	+3.6	+1.2	−2.2	+2.8	+1.8

Set by set

Set	Thiago Seyboth Wild	Yoshihito Nishioka	Net, Thiago
1	+1.6	−4.6	+6.2
2	+1.0	+1.5	−0.5
3	+5.3	+0.7	+4.6
4	−0.8	+0.4	−1.2
5	−3.5	+3.9	−7.3

Adaptation

First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.

Thiago Seyboth Wild serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	58% 93%	8% 100%	33% 63%
2	51% 50%	6% 100%	43% 60%
3	63% 73%	17% 50%	21% 80%
4	54% 71%	10% 75%	36% 43%
5	58% 36%	4% 0%	38% 44%

Set to set −1.34 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets −0.76 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Yoshihito Nishioka serving

Set	Wide	Body	T
1	38% 40%	12% 33%	50% 77%
2	40% 59%	16% 43%	44% 63%
3	40% 60%	4% 100%	56% 43%
4	32% 58%	22% 38%	46% 82%
5	47% 88%	12% 50%	41% 57%

Set to set +0.25 per 100 first serves in sets 2+

Within sets +0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Thiago Seyboth Wild

16.4 points left on the table across 620 shots 2.65 per 100 shots

Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×19; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.74 pts
Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×10; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.70 pts
Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×6; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.52 pts
Return +1: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×13; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.51 pts

Yoshihito Nishioka

16.5 points left on the table across 603 shots 2.73 per 100 shots

Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH through the middle ×9; BH inside-in rates higher · 1.05 pts
Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit FH crosscourt ×11; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.95 pts
Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×14; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.63 pts
Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit BH down the line ×5; BH inside-in rates higher · 0.49 pts