Stuttgart · R32 · Grass · 13 Jun 2023
Daniel Altmaier v Christopher Oconnell
28–54 in points · Christopher Oconnell won
Why it went the way it did
Christopher Oconnell won 13.7 more points than Daniel Altmaier relative to what the serve alone predicted. Daniel Altmaier's biggest leaks: return execution −2.9, forehand execution −1.9, slice shot selection −1.4.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Daniel Altmaier | Christopher Oconnell | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.9 | −0.4 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.7 |
| Return | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −2.9 | −4.0 | +0.4 | −1.1 | +1.0 | +0.3 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +0.6 | −1.9 | −1.5 | +0.4 | +0.5 | +3.4 | +4.3 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.3 |
| Slice | −0.1 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −1.2 | +0.2 | −1.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 |
| Net | +0.2 | +0.4 | −1.3 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | +0.3 | +0.6 | +1.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.7 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −7.6 | −8.9 | +0.9 | −1.1 | +4.9 | +4.7 |
Set by set
| Set | Daniel Altmaier | Christopher Oconnell | Net, Daniel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −5.3 | +2.4 | −7.7 | |
| 2 | −3.7 | +2.3 | −6.0 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Daniel Altmaier serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 74% 45% | – | 26% 57% |
| 2 | 44% 71% | 6% 0% | 50% 38% |
Within sets −0.79 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Christopher Oconnell serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 86% | – | 65% 77% |
| 2 | 47% 78% | – | 53% 90% |
Within sets +0.83 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Daniel Altmaier
2.9 points left on the table across 103 shots 2.79 per 100 shots
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side hit FH down the line ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.14 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.13 pts
Christopher Oconnell
2.2 points left on the table across 102 shots 2.16 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×2; BH down the line rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×2; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts
- Long rally, 9+: slice to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.11 pts