Halle · R32 · Grass · 20 Jun 2023
Alexander Bublik v Borna Coric
61–37 in points · Alexander Bublik won
Why it went the way it did
Alexander Bublik won 11.0 more points than Borna Coric relative to what the serve alone predicted. Borna Coric's biggest leaks: serve 1st execution −2.2, backhand execution −2.1, slice shot selection −1.7.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Alexander Bublik | Borna Coric | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | +0.2 | ±0.0 | +2.5 | +2.8 | +0.1 | −0.1 | −2.2 | −2.2 |
| Serve 2nd | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.4 | +0.3 |
| Return | −0.4 | −0.4 | +1.0 | +0.3 | −0.3 | +0.4 | −0.6 | −0.4 |
| Forehand | +0.3 | +1.0 | +1.2 | +2.5 | −0.3 | +0.5 | −1.2 | −1.0 |
| Backhand | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.3 | +0.4 | −0.1 | −0.3 | −2.1 | −2.6 |
| Slice | +0.2 | −1.3 | +0.1 | −1.0 | +0.2 | −1.7 | +0.6 | −0.9 |
| Net | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.6 | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.8 | −1.0 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −0.2 | −1.6 | −2.0 | ±0.0 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.1 |
| All shots | ±0.0 | −0.6 | +3.8 | +3.2 | −0.7 | −1.0 | −6.1 | −7.8 |
Set by set
| Set | Alexander Bublik | Borna Coric | Net, Alexander | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +1.2 | −2.1 | +3.3 | |
| 2 | +2.0 | −5.6 | +7.7 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Alexander Bublik serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 61% 75% | 3% 0% | 36% 75% |
| 2 | 63% 58% | – | 37% 100% |
Set to set −1.84 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets −1.38 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Borna Coric serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 45% | 8% 100% | 50% 69% |
| 2 | 40% 25% | – | 60% 42% |
Within sets +0.02 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Alexander Bublik
3.9 points left on the table across 142 shots 2.76 per 100 shots
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH slice through the middle ×3; FH slice down the line rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court hit BH slice down the line ×3; BH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your backhand side hit BH drop shot through the middle ×1; BH drop shot crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
Borna Coric
4.3 points left on the table across 141 shots 3.05 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, deuce court hit FH down the line ×3; FH through the middle rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your backhand side, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash inside-in rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts