Wimbledon · R128 · Grass · 3 Jul 2023
Barbora Strycova v Maryna Zanevska
70–47 in points · Barbora Strycova won
Why it went the way it did
Barbora Strycova won 11.0 more points than Maryna Zanevska relative to what the serve alone predicted. Maryna Zanevska's biggest leaks: return execution −3.2, serve 2nd execution −2.3, slice shot selection −1.8.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Barbora Strycova | Maryna Zanevska | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +0.6 | −0.9 | −0.3 | −0.3 | ±0.0 | −0.5 | −0.8 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | +0.2 | +0.8 | +1.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −2.3 | −2.3 |
| Return | −0.1 | −1.7 | −0.4 | −2.2 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −3.2 | −3.7 |
| Forehand | +0.6 | +1.1 | −0.4 | +1.3 | −0.1 | +0.4 | −1.7 | −1.5 |
| Backhand | −0.3 | +0.2 | −0.5 | −0.6 | −0.3 | −0.2 | −1.0 | −1.5 |
| Slice | ±0.0 | −2.8 | +2.4 | −0.3 | +0.3 | −1.8 | −0.7 | −2.1 |
| Net | +0.4 | +0.4 | −0.7 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.5 | +0.3 | +0.7 |
| Touch | +0.1 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −1.4 | −0.2 | −0.2 | −1.8 | −2.1 |
| All shots | +0.6 | −2.6 | −0.4 | −2.4 | −1.1 | −1.3 | −11.0 | −13.4 |
Set by set
| Set | Barbora Strycova | Maryna Zanevska | Net, Barbora | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +0.5 | −5.8 | +6.3 | |
| 2 | −2.8 | −7.6 | +4.8 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Barbora Strycova serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 80% | 13% 33% | 46% 73% |
| 2 | 43% 63% | 22% 63% | 35% 77% |
Within sets +0.72 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Maryna Zanevska serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27% 25% | 27% 25% | 47% 57% |
| 2 | 28% 55% | 31% 67% | 41% 50% |
Within sets +1.09 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Barbora Strycova
4.0 points left on the table across 161 shots 2.50 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your middle, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH through the middle ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.23 pts
- Serve +1: slice to your middle, you at net hit FH volley through the middle ×1; FH volley down the line rates higher · 0.19 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.17 pts
Maryna Zanevska
5.5 points left on the table across 166 shots 3.31 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, T, deuce court, server rushing the net hit BH slice through the middle ×3; BH slice down the line rates higher · 0.40 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: lob to your middle, you at net hit Smash through the middle ×1; Smash crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.22 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH down the line ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.20 pts