ITF Figueira Da Foz · QF · Hard · 28 Jul 2023
Francisca Jorge v Yuriko Miyazaki
62–42 in points · Francisca Jorge won
Why it went the way it did
Francisca Jorge won 10.7 more points than Yuriko Miyazaki relative to what the serve alone predicted. Yuriko Miyazaki's biggest leaks: return execution −4.2, forehand execution −2.5, serve 1st execution −2.1.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Francisca Jorge | Yuriko Miyazaki | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.7 | −0.8 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −2.1 | −2.2 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.8 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.3 | −1.2 |
| Return | −0.2 | −0.8 | −1.5 | −2.5 | +0.4 | −0.2 | −4.2 | −4.0 |
| Forehand | −0.2 | +0.7 | +2.4 | +2.9 | +0.6 | +1.0 | −2.5 | −1.0 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +0.8 | +0.3 | +1.1 | +0.3 | +0.2 | −1.5 | −1.0 |
| Slice | +0.3 | −2.0 | +0.3 | −1.4 | +0.2 | −1.5 | −1.2 | −2.5 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.8 | −0.7 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.6 | +0.9 |
| Touch | ±0.0 | +0.1 | +0.1 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −0.2 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | −0.1 | −1.1 | +0.8 | −0.4 | +1.5 | −0.1 | −12.5 | −11.1 |
Set by set
| Set | Francisca Jorge | Yuriko Miyazaki | Net, Francisca | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | +2.7 | −1.4 | +4.1 | |
| 2 | −3.2 | −9.7 | +6.6 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Francisca Jorge serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 39% 78% | 22% 60% | 39% 78% |
| 2 | 29% 86% | 21% 80% | 50% 83% |
Within sets +1.81 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Yuriko Miyazaki serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 58% | 24% 67% | 28% 43% |
| 2 | 38% 50% | 25% 38% | 38% 75% |
Within sets +0.60 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Francisca Jorge
4.1 points left on the table across 145 shots 2.81 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×5; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×3; BH down the line rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, body, deuce court hit BH through the middle ×4; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.18 pts
Yuriko Miyazaki
2.4 points left on the table across 155 shots 1.55 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×3; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.16 pts
- Return of a 1st serve, body, deuce court hit FH slice crosscourt ×1; FH slice through the middle rates higher · 0.10 pts
- Serve +1: deep return to your backhand side hit BH down the line ×2; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts
- Serve +1: short return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.09 pts