RallyIQ

Cincinnati · QF · Hard · 18 Aug 2023

Karolina Muchova v Marie Bouzkova

12–2 in points · result not charted to completion

Why it went the way it did

Karolina Muchova won 4.6 more points than Marie Bouzkova relative to what the serve alone predicted.

Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.

ShotKarolina MuchovaMarie Bouzkova
DirSelExecTotalDirSelExecTotal
Serve 1st ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.7 +0.7 ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.3 −0.3
Serve 2nd ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.1 +0.1 ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.3 −0.3
Return ±0.0 ±0.0 +0.2 +0.2 ±0.0 +0.1 ±0.0 +0.1
Forehand +0.1 +0.3 +0.9 +1.3 +0.1 +0.1 +0.1 +0.2
Backhand −0.1 ±0.0 +0.2 +0.2 ±0.0 +0.1 −0.3 −0.2
Slice ±0.0 −0.2 +0.2 ±0.0 ±0.0 −0.2 −0.4 −0.6
Net +0.1 ±0.0 +0.4 +0.5 ±0.0 +0.2 −0.2 ±0.0
Touch ±0.0 +0.1 +0.5 +0.6 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0 ±0.0
All shots +0.1+0.2 +3.2+3.5 +0.1+0.3 −1.5−1.0

Set by set

SetKarolina MuchovaMarie BouzkovaNet, Karolina
1+3.5−1.0 +4.6

Counterfactual: the best direction every time

If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.

Karolina Muchova

0.5 points left on the table across 20 shots 2.39 per 100 shots

  1. Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit BH through the middle ×1; BH down the line rates higher · 0.11 pts
  2. Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×1; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.08 pts
  3. Serve +1: deep return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.06 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice through the middle ×1; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.06 pts

Marie Bouzkova

0.4 points left on the table across 22 shots 2.01 per 100 shots

  1. Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH down the line ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.10 pts
  2. Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH down the line ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.07 pts
  3. Return +1: drive to your middle hit FH slice down the line ×1; FH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.06 pts
  4. Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your backhand side, opponent at net hit BH down the line ×1; BH crosscourt rates higher · 0.05 pts