US Open · R32 · Hard · 2 Sep 2023
Daniel Evans v Carlos Alcaraz
106–132 in points · Carlos Alcaraz won
Why it went the way it did
Carlos Alcaraz won 16.9 more points than Daniel Evans relative to what the serve alone predicted. Daniel Evans's biggest leaks: slice shot selection −8.7, serve 1st execution −4.0, net execution −3.3.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Daniel Evans | Carlos Alcaraz | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | −0.5 | +0.3 | −4.0 | −4.1 | −1.3 | +0.2 | −3.8 | −4.9 |
| Serve 2nd | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | −0.2 | −0.2 | +0.1 | −0.1 | +0.6 | +0.6 |
| Return | −0.1 | −3.3 | +0.7 | −2.7 | +0.3 | +0.7 | −0.1 | +0.9 |
| Forehand | −0.3 | +6.0 | −3.0 | +2.7 | +0.1 | +4.2 | +4.7 | +9.1 |
| Backhand | ±0.0 | +1.2 | −2.3 | −1.1 | +0.3 | +3.0 | −4.2 | −0.9 |
| Slice | +1.0 | −8.7 | +2.9 | −4.7 | ±0.0 | −4.6 | −1.3 | −6.0 |
| Net | +0.8 | +3.0 | −3.3 | +0.5 | +1.3 | +1.2 | +3.5 | +6.0 |
| Touch | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.4 | −1.2 | +0.1 | ±0.0 | +0.7 | +0.8 |
| Other | −0.2 | −0.6 | +0.4 | −0.4 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.9 | −2.2 | −10.0 | −11.3 | +0.7 | +4.7 | +0.1 | +5.5 |
Set by set
| Set | Daniel Evans | Carlos Alcaraz | Net, Daniel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −6.8 | −1.5 | −5.3 | |
| 2 | −7.4 | −1.9 | −5.4 | |
| 3 | +2.5 | +2.4 | +0.2 | |
| 4 | +0.3 | +6.6 | −6.3 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Daniel Evans serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42% 71% | 15% 20% | 42% 43% |
| 2 | 58% 52% | 14% 40% | 28% 50% |
| 3 | 41% 86% | 21% 86% | 38% 46% |
| 4 | 45% 31% | 10% 100% | 45% 77% |
Set to set +0.53 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.18 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Carlos Alcaraz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35% 64% | 35% 91% | 29% 44% |
| 2 | 43% 80% | 30% 43% | 26% 67% |
| 3 | 32% 63% | 36% 56% | 32% 100% |
| 4 | 41% 64% | 30% 88% | 30% 100% |
Set to set +0.09 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.08 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Daniel Evans
11.6 points left on the table across 417 shots 2.79 per 100 shots
- Return of a 1st serve, wide, ad court hit BH slice through the middle ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.30 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×5; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drop shot to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH down the line rates higher · 0.27 pts
- Long rally, 9+: drive to your backhand side hit BH slice down the line ×4; BH slice crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
Carlos Alcaraz
10.9 points left on the table across 446 shots 2.44 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side hit FH inside-out ×13; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.34 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×1; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.25 pts
- Return +1: drive to your forehand side, opponent at net hit FH through the middle ×2; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: slice to your backhand side, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley crosscourt rates higher · 0.21 pts