US Open · QF · Hard · 6 Sep 2023
Carlos Alcaraz v Alexander Zverev
98–76 in points · Carlos Alcaraz won
Why it went the way it did
Carlos Alcaraz won 8.0 more points than Alexander Zverev relative to what the serve alone predicted. Alexander Zverev's biggest leaks: return execution −3.6, slice shot selection −2.1, forehand execution −1.9.
Each shot moves its hitter's chance of winning the point. Those moves are split into direction choice, shot selection and execution, and summed here. Read both columns together: one player's gain is the other's loss.
| Shot | Carlos Alcaraz | Alexander Zverev | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | Dir | Sel | Exec | Total | |
| Serve 1st | ±0.0 | +0.1 | −4.2 | −4.0 | +0.2 | −0.1 | −0.1 | ±0.0 |
| Serve 2nd | +0.2 | +0.1 | +0.2 | +0.4 | −0.1 | ±0.0 | −1.2 | −1.3 |
| Return | +0.1 | +0.2 | −0.4 | −0.1 | +0.1 | +0.9 | −3.6 | −2.6 |
| Forehand | +0.4 | +2.9 | −2.6 | +0.6 | −0.9 | +2.3 | −1.9 | −0.5 |
| Backhand | −0.4 | +1.2 | +5.5 | +6.3 | +0.1 | −0.2 | −0.7 | −0.7 |
| Slice | +0.1 | −2.6 | −0.6 | −3.1 | −0.2 | −2.1 | −0.9 | −3.2 |
| Net | +0.1 | ±0.0 | −0.4 | −0.3 | +0.2 | +0.2 | −0.6 | −0.2 |
| Touch | −0.3 | −0.4 | −0.3 | −1.0 | ±0.0 | −1.0 | −0.4 | −1.4 |
| Other | −0.1 | −0.4 | −0.1 | −0.6 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 | ±0.0 |
| All shots | +0.1 | +1.1 | −3.1 | −1.9 | −0.5 | ±0.0 | −9.3 | −9.9 |
Set by set
| Set | Carlos Alcaraz | Alexander Zverev | Net, Carlos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.4 | −4.3 | +1.9 | |
| 2 | +1.4 | −4.2 | +5.6 | |
| 3 | −1.0 | −1.4 | +0.5 |
Adaptation
First-serve direction mix set by set, with the share of points each direction won. The scores measure whether the server moved toward the directions that had been winning earlier in this match, set to set and every two to three service games, in points per 100 first serves. Read them as a habit, not a gain: across the tour, a direction's edge in early sets barely predicts the later ones. Whether the returner responded can't be told apart from noise within one match.
Carlos Alcaraz serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 46% 71% | 19% 29% | 35% 85% |
| 2 | 56% 86% | 4% 100% | 40% 50% |
| 3 | 63% 73% | 6% 100% | 31% 45% |
Set to set +1.69 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.23 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Alexander Zverev serving
| Set | Wide | Body | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 48% 64% | – | 52% 58% |
| 2 | 38% 40% | – | 62% 56% |
| 3 | 39% 91% | 11% 100% | 50% 36% |
Set to set +0.13 per 100 first serves in sets 2+
Within sets +0.70 per 100 first serves, every two to three service games
Counterfactual: the best direction every time
If each shot had gone in the direction that is usually worth most for that stroke and position, this is how many more points each player would expect to win. It's an upper bound: the best direction isn't always on, and the chart can't see the ball's pace or position.
Carlos Alcaraz
7.8 points left on the table across 303 shots 2.57 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.41 pts
- Serve +1: mid-depth return to your middle hit FH through the middle ×4; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.35 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×3; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.28 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: volley to your middle, opponent at net, you at net hit BH volley through the middle ×1; BH volley down the line rates higher · 0.25 pts
Alexander Zverev
8.8 points left on the table across 320 shots 2.76 per 100 shots
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your middle hit FH through the middle ×8; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.46 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, T, ad court hit FH through the middle ×4; FH inside-out rates higher · 0.37 pts
- Rally, shots 5–8: drive to your forehand side hit FH through the middle ×7; FH crosscourt rates higher · 0.36 pts
- Return of a 2nd serve, wide, deuce court hit FH through the middle ×7; FH inside-in rates higher · 0.28 pts